Why the Year-to-Date Number Matters

A single month of data tells you what happened that month. Seven months of data tells you what the year looks like. When the year-to-date average price is higher than the most recent month, prices have been falling. When it is lower, they have been rising. The gap between the two numbers tells you how fast.

Through the first seven months of 2026, the GTA recorded 37,105 sales at a year-to-date average price of $1,032,207. In July alone, 5,995 homes sold at an average of $1,003,956. That gap of $28,251, roughly 2.7 per cent, tells you the market has been softer in the summer than it was earlier in the year.

Source: TRREB Market Watch, July 2026.

Region by Region: Where July Fell Short of the Year

Every major region in the GTA followed the same pattern. July's average price came in below the year-to-date average in every case. The size of the gap varied.

Halton Region recorded a year-to-date average of $1,193,397 against a July average of $1,151,595. That is a gap of $41,802, or 3.5 per cent. Of the five major regions, Halton showed the widest spread between the year and the month.

City of Toronto came in at $1,049,952 year-to-date against $1,010,836 in July, a difference of $39,116 or 3.7 per cent. The condo-heavy downtown pulls the city average down, and summer is typically slower for condo sales.

Peel Region showed $943,541 year-to-date against $910,007 in July, a gap of $33,534 or 3.6 per cent. Brampton and Mississauga both contributed to the decline.

York Region was tighter. The year-to-date average sat at $1,151,992 against $1,146,307 in July, a difference of just $5,685, or 0.5 per cent. York held up better than any other region over the summer.

Durham Region recorded $842,889 year-to-date against $834,312 in July, a gap of $8,577 or 1.0 per cent. Durham, like York, showed less seasonal softening than the western regions.

What This Tells You About Direction

The fact that every region's July figure is below its year-to-date average does not mean prices are in freefall. It means the spring was stronger than the summer, which is a normal seasonal pattern in the GTA. The question is how large the gap is and whether it is widening.

The regions with the smallest gaps, York at 0.5 per cent and Durham at 1.0 per cent, are the ones where summer prices held closest to the spring pace. The regions with the largest gaps, Halton at 3.5 per cent and the City of Toronto at 3.7 per cent, softened more noticeably.

For context, the Bank of Canada overnight rate sat at 2.3 per cent through July, and the prime rate at 4.5 per cent. Mortgage rates remained elevated, with five-year fixed rates at 6.09 per cent. These borrowing costs continued to weigh on affordability and on what buyers were willing to pay.

Vaughan and King: A Closer Look

Within York Region, Vaughan recorded a year-to-date average of $1,156,403 against a July figure of $1,144,631, a gap of $11,772 or 1.0 per cent. Vaughan accounted for 1,754 of York Region's 6,631 year-to-date sales, the largest share of any municipality in the region.

King Township was the exception to the pattern. King's year-to-date average was $1,996,141, and its July average was $2,028,099, meaning July actually came in higher than the year. However, King recorded only 20 sales in July, a volume so small that a single high-end transaction can move the average significantly. With 120 sales year-to-date, King's numbers are still best read as a range rather than a precise trend.

What This Means If You Are Buying or Selling

If you are selling, the year-to-date average is probably closer to what your home would have fetched in March or April. The July number is closer to what it would fetch today. Neither is a substitute for a proper comparative market analysis on your specific property, but the direction tells you that pricing to the spring market and expecting a summer result will likely leave you sitting.

If you are buying, the seasonal softening gives you marginally more room to negotiate than you had three months ago. The regions where that room is narrowest, York and Durham, are also the ones where sellers are less likely to feel pressure to move on price.

If you want to know where your property sits against both the year-to-date trend and the most recent month, call me at 416-560-4983 and I will pull the numbers for your specific area.

Danny Macedo, Macedo Real Estate Group, Royal LePage Supreme Realty, Brokerage.

All figures: TRREB Market Watch, July 2026, released 6 August 2026.